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The Flaw of Averages : Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (Reprint): Savage, Sam L./ Danziger, Jeff (ILT)/ Markowitz, Harry (FRW): BOOKS KINOKUNIYA
Book Details
The Flaw of Averages : Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (Reprint)
The Flaw of Averages : Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty (Reprint)
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons Inc
Published Date : 2012/04
Binding : Paperback
ISBN : 9781118073759

BookWeb Price : THB 603.00
Kinokuniya Privilege Card member price : THB 543.00

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Book Description
Source: ENG
Academic Descriptors: A48120000 A48404238
Academic Level: Extracurricular
Table of Contents
 
Foreword                                           xv
Preface                                            xvii
Acknowledgments                                    xxi
Introduction Connecting the Seat of the            1   (8)
Intellect to the Seat of the Pants
      Foundations
  Part 1 The Big Picture                           9   (36)
    Chapter 1 The Flaw of Averages                 11  (11)
    Chapter 2 The Fall of the Algebraic Curtain    22  (4)
    and Rise of the Flaw of Averages
    Chapter 3 Mitigating the Flaw of Averages      26  (8)
    Chapter 4 The Wright Brothers Versus the       34  (6)
    Wrong Brothers
    Chapter 5 The Most Important Instrument in     40  (5)
    the Cockpit
  Part 2 Five Basic MINDIes for Uncertainty        45  (64)
    Chapter 6 MINDIes Are to MINDs What HANDIes    49  (3)
    Are to HANDs
    Chapter 7 Mindle 1: Uncertainty Versus Risk    52  (3)
    Chapter 8 Mindle 2: An Uncertain Number Is     55  (12)
    a Shape
    Chapter 9 Mindle 3: Combinations of            67  (11)
    Uncertain Numbers
    Chapter 10 I Come to Bury SIGMA, Not to        78  (5)
    Praise it
    Chapter 11 Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the        83  (8)
    Drunk in the Road
    Chapter 12 Who Was Jensen and Why Wasn't He    91  (7)
    Equal?
    Chapter 13 Mindle 5: Interrelated              98  (11)
    Uncertainties
  Part 3 Decisions and Information                 109 (18)
    Chapter 14 Decision Trees                      111 (7)
    Chapter 15 The Value of Information            118 (9)
  Part 4 The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging        127 (28)
    Chapter 16 The Seven Deadly Sins of            129 (4)
    Averaging
    Chapter 17 The Flaw of Extremes                133 (6)
    Chapter 18 Simpson's Paradox                   139 (3)
    Chapter 19 The Scholtes Revenue Fallacy        142 (5)
    Chapter 20 Taking Credit for Chance            147 (8)
    Occurrences
      Applications
  Part 5 The Flaw of Averages in Finance           155 (58)
    Chapter 21 Your Retirement Portfolio           157 (6)
    Chapter 22 The Birth of Portfolio Theory:      163 (6)
    The Age of Covariance
    Chapter 23 When Harry Met Bill(y)              169 (6)
    Chapter 24 Mindles for the Financial           175 (6)
    Planning Client
    Chapter 25 Options: Profiting from             181 (11)
    Uncertainty
    Chapter 26 When Fischer and Myron Met Bob:     192 (8)
    Option Theory
    Chapter 27 Prices, Probabilities, and          200 (13)
    Predictions
  Part 6 Real Finance                              213 (32)
    Chapter 28 Holistic Versus Hole-istic          215 (7)
    Chapter 29 Real Portfolios at Shell            222 (6)
    Chapter 30 Real Options                        228 (8)
    Chapter 31 Some Gratuitous Inflammatory        236 (9)
    Remarks on the Accounting Industry
  Part 7 The Flaw of Averages in Supply Chains     245 (18)
    Chapter 32 The DNA of Supply Chains            247 (7)
    Chapter 33 A Supply Chain of DNA               254 (3)
    Chapter 34 Cawlfield's Principle               257 (6)
  Part 8 The Flaw of Averages and Some Hot         263 (54)
  Button Issues
    Chapter 35 The Statistical Research Group      265 (7)
    of World War II
    Chapter 36 Probability and the War on Terror   272 (17)
    Chapter 37 The Flaw of Averages and Climate    289 (10)
    Change
    Chapter 38 The Flaw of Averages in Health      299 (8)
    Care
    Chapter 39 Sex and the Central Limit Theorem   307 (10)
      Probability Management
  Part 9 Toward a Cure for the Flaw of Averages    317 (50)
    Chapter 40 The End of Statistics as You        319 (5)
    Were Taught It
    Chapter 41 Visualization                       324 (4)
    Chapter 42 Interactive Simulation: A New       328 (4)
    Lightbulb
    Chapter 43 Scenario Libraries: The Power       332 (9)
    Grid
    Chapter 44 The Fundamental Identity of         341 (2)
    SLURP Algebra
    Chapter 45 Putting It into Practice            343 (11)
    Chapter 46 The CPO: Managing Probability       354 (10)
    Management
    Chapter 47 A Posthumous Visit by My Father     364 (3)
Red Word Glossary                                  367 (4)
Notes                                              371 (11)
About the Author                                   382 (1)
Index                                              383
 

A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity.Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." -William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal...In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." --Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

Contents
Preface xv Acknowledgments xix Introduction Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants 1 FOUNDATIONS Part 1 The Big Picture 9 Chapter 1 The Flaw of Averages 11 Chapter 2 The Fall of the Algebraic Curtain and Rise of the Flaw of Averages 22 Chapter 3 Mitigating the Flaw of Averages 26 Chapter 4 The Wright Brothers Versus the Wrong Brothers 34 Chapter 5 The Most Important Instrument in the Cockpit 40 Part 2 Five Basic MINDles for Uncertainty 45 Chapter 6 MINDles Are to MINDs What HANDles Are to HANDs 49 Chapter 7 Mindle 1: Uncertainty Versus Risk 52 Chapter 8 Mindle 2: An Uncertain Number Is a Shape 55 Chapter 9 Mindle 3: Combinations of Uncertain Numbers 67 Chapter 10 I Come to Bury SIGMA, Not to Praise it 78 Chapter 11 Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the Drunk in the Road 83 Chapter 12 Who Was Jensen and Why Wasn't He Equal? 91 Chapter 13 Mindle 5: Interrelated Uncertainties 98 Part 3 Decisions and Information 109 Chapter 14 Decision Trees 111 Chapter 15 The Value of Information 118 Part 4 The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging 127 Chapter 16 The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging 129 Chapter 17 The Flaw of Extremes 133 Chapter 18 Simpson's Paradox 139 Chapter 19 The Scholtes Revenue Fallacy 142 Chapter 20 Taking Credit for Chance Occurrences 147 APPLICATIONS Part 5 The Flaw of Averages in Finance 155 Chapter 21 Your Retirement Portfolio 157 Chapter 22 The Birth of Portfolio Theory: The Age of Covariance 163 Chapter 23 When Harry Met Bill(y) 169 Chapter 24 Mindles for the Financial Planning Client 175 Chapter 25 Options: Profiting from Uncertainty 181 Chapter 26 When Fischer and Myron Met Bob: Option Theory 192 Chapter 27 Prices, Probabilities, and Predictions 200 Part 6 Real Finance 213 Chapter 28 Holistic Versus Hole-istic 215 Chapter 29 Real Portfolios at Shell 222 Chapter 30 Real Options 228 Chapter 31 Some Gratuitous Inflammatory Remarks on the Accounting Industry 236 Part 7 The Flaw of Averages in Supply Chains 245 Chapter 32 The DNA of Supply Chains 247 Chapter 33 A Supply Chain of DNA 254 Chapter 34 Cawlfield's Principle 257 Part 8 The Flaw of Averages and Some Hot Button Issues 263 Chapter 35 The Statistical Research Group of World War II 265 Chapter 36 Probability and the War on Terror 272 Chapter 37 The Flaw of Averages and Climate Change 289 Chapter 38 The Flaw of Averages in Health Care 299 Chapter 39 Sex and the Central Limit Theorem 307 PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT Part 9 Toward a Cure for the Flaw of Averages 317 Chapter 40 The End of Statistics as You Were Taught It 319 Chapter 41 Visualization 324 Chapter 42 Interactive Simulation: A New Lightbulb 328 Chapter 43 Scenario Libraries: The Power Grid 332 Chapter 44 The Fundamental Identity of SLURP Algebra 341 Chapter 45 Putting It into Practice 343 Chapter 46 The CPO: Managing Probability Management 354 Chapter 47 A Posthumous Visit by My Father 364 Red Word Glossary 367 Notes 371 About the Author 382 Index 383