Foreword                                           xv
Preface                                            xvii
Acknowledgments                                    xxi
Introduction Connecting the Seat of the            1   (8)
Intellect to the Seat of the Pants
      Foundations
  Part 1 The Big Picture                           9   (36)
    Chapter 1 The Flaw of Averages                 11  (11)
    Chapter 2 The Fall of the Algebraic Curtain    22  (4)
    and Rise of the Flaw of Averages
    Chapter 3 Mitigating the Flaw of Averages      26  (8)
    Chapter 4 The Wright Brothers Versus the       34  (6)
    Wrong Brothers
    Chapter 5 The Most Important Instrument in     40  (5)
    the Cockpit
  Part 2 Five Basic MINDIes for Uncertainty        45  (64)
    Chapter 6 MINDIes Are to MINDs What HANDIes    49  (3)
    Are to HANDs
    Chapter 7 Mindle 1: Uncertainty Versus Risk    52  (3)
    Chapter 8 Mindle 2: An Uncertain Number Is     55  (12)
    a Shape
    Chapter 9 Mindle 3: Combinations of            67  (11)
    Uncertain Numbers
    Chapter 10 I Come to Bury SIGMA, Not to        78  (5)
    Praise it
    Chapter 11 Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the        83  (8)
    Drunk in the Road
    Chapter 12 Who Was Jensen and Why Wasn't He    91  (7)
    Equal?
    Chapter 13 Mindle 5: Interrelated              98  (11)
    Uncertainties
  Part 3 Decisions and Information                 109 (18)
    Chapter 14 Decision Trees                      111 (7)
    Chapter 15 The Value of Information            118 (9)
  Part 4 The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging        127 (28)
    Chapter 16 The Seven Deadly Sins of            129 (4)
    Averaging
    Chapter 17 The Flaw of Extremes                133 (6)
    Chapter 18 Simpson's Paradox                   139 (3)
    Chapter 19 The Scholtes Revenue Fallacy        142 (5)
    Chapter 20 Taking Credit for Chance            147 (8)
    Occurrences
      Applications
  Part 5 The Flaw of Averages in Finance           155 (58)
    Chapter 21 Your Retirement Portfolio           157 (6)
    Chapter 22 The Birth of Portfolio Theory:      163 (6)
    The Age of Covariance
    Chapter 23 When Harry Met Bill(y)              169 (6)
    Chapter 24 Mindles for the Financial           175 (6)
    Planning Client
    Chapter 25 Options: Profiting from             181 (11)
    Uncertainty
    Chapter 26 When Fischer and Myron Met Bob:     192 (8)
    Option Theory
    Chapter 27 Prices, Probabilities, and          200 (13)
    Predictions
  Part 6 Real Finance                              213 (32)
    Chapter 28 Holistic Versus Hole-istic          215 (7)
    Chapter 29 Real Portfolios at Shell            222 (6)
    Chapter 30 Real Options                        228 (8)
    Chapter 31 Some Gratuitous Inflammatory        236 (9)
    Remarks on the Accounting Industry
  Part 7 The Flaw of Averages in Supply Chains     245 (18)
    Chapter 32 The DNA of Supply Chains            247 (7)
    Chapter 33 A Supply Chain of DNA               254 (3)
    Chapter 34 Cawlfield's Principle               257 (6)
  Part 8 The Flaw of Averages and Some Hot         263 (54)
  Button Issues
    Chapter 35 The Statistical Research Group      265 (7)
    of World War II
    Chapter 36 Probability and the War on Terror   272 (17)
    Chapter 37 The Flaw of Averages and Climate    289 (10)
    Change
    Chapter 38 The Flaw of Averages in Health      299 (8)
    Care
    Chapter 39 Sex and the Central Limit Theorem   307 (10)
      Probability Management
  Part 9 Toward a Cure for the Flaw of Averages    317 (50)
    Chapter 40 The End of Statistics as You        319 (5)
    Were Taught It
    Chapter 41 Visualization                       324 (4)
    Chapter 42 Interactive Simulation: A New       328 (4)
    Lightbulb
    Chapter 43 Scenario Libraries: The Power       332 (9)
    Grid
    Chapter 44 The Fundamental Identity of         341 (2)
    SLURP Algebra
    Chapter 45 Putting It into Practice            343 (11)
    Chapter 46 The CPO: Managing Probability       354 (10)
    Management
    Chapter 47 A Posthumous Visit by My Father     364 (3)
Red Word Glossary                                  367 (4)
Notes                                              371 (11)
About the Author                                   382 (1)
Index                                              383